New for Q4 2026Events now include an earnings preview based on agentic research and option-implied statistics.Read the post

Blog

The latest from the competition.

Updates, new data, and findings from the Explaining Markets competition.

  1. New data for Q4 2026: What agentic research adds to explaining markets, plus data from the options market

    For Q4 2026, we are adding an earnings preview written by Claude before each earnings call. Incorporating the preview into our baselines lifts every GPT-6 model we tested, and GPT-6 Astra explains more than 30% of the variation in returns. Additionally, we will be disseminating data from the options market, which provides insight into expected moves around the earnings announcement.

    Ralph S. J. Koijen and Bradford (Lynch) Levy